Steam & Sharp Line Moves
by @tabber
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Steam & Sharp Line Moves
Steam & Sharp Line Moves
OCT 19, 2026
Scorecard: 7/14 — sharp money splits the weekend at the line
In this brief: 5 sections
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1
Jets +7.5 — W (Patriots 26–19)
The 3-pt RLM toward the Jets caught the key hook at 7.5 and cashed by a half-point.
• Framed at NE -7.5 after the line dropped from -10 against 78% of tickets and 86% of handle.
• Patriots won 26–19 at Gillette; the Jets' late field goal made the difference against the number.
• Textbook RLM-on-the-dog: sharp money trusted the resistance at the hook.
2
Jets–Pats Under 43.5 — L (45 points)
45 points went over by 1.5; fourth-quarter scoring undid the handle divergence.
• Framed at Under 43.5 with 66% of the handle on 26% of tickets — the money side.
• Patriots 26, Jets 19: late field goals on both sides pushed it over the number.
• Right process, wrong side of a 1.5-point margin.
3
Cardinals +12.5 — W (Arizona 18–16)
Arizona won outright 18–16 on a walk-off field goal; the 84%-handle divergence cashed big.
• Framed at ARI +12.5: 50% of tickets, 84% of the handle, line down from -14.
• Cardinals 18, Rams 16 at SoFi — Chad Ryland's six field goals did it.
• The tab's loudest handle gap of the weekend delivered the outright upset.
4
Raiders +4.5 — W (Bills 33–30)
The book-needs-the-dog setup cashed: Buffalo won 33–30 but never covered.
• Framed at LV +4.5 after BUF steamed from -6 to -4.5; Caesars needed the Raiders to cover.
• Kirk Cousins' 44-yard TD with 1:32 left made it 33–30 — inside the number.
• Backdoor covers are the price of the line moving your way.
5
UNLV -1.5 — L (Air Force 41–31)
The full favorite flip ran into a 21-0 Air Force fourth quarter.
• Framed at UNLV -1.5 after a 3-point flip from +1.5 with 100% of tickets on AFA.
• UNLV led 24–20 entering the fourth; Air Force scored 21 straight to win 41–31.
• A favorite flip that faded when the defense collapsed.
Read full analysis on tabtab.com
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